![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Homestate Pride
Nov. 2nd, 2008 10:13 amfrom fivethirtyeight.com, on the Michigan vote:
What McCain Has Going For Him
1. Obama's late start; 2. Governor Jenniefer Granholm's poor approval ratings; 3. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's multiple felony convictions; 4. A strong, well-organized state Republican party; 5. McCain's history in the state, e.g. his victory in 2000, and; 6. Michigan's history of racial tensions.
... Although Democrats were disappointed by the state's failure to hold a sanctioned primary, they did not particularly blame Obama for it, as the decision was ultimately the perogative of a Republican-controlled state legislature. Kwame Kilpatrick may have been holding Obama's numbers down over the summer, but he left office on September 18th, just soon enough to take him out of the headlines for the stretch run of the campaign. While Granholm remains unpopular, Washington's passage of the bailout bill -- coupled with its failure to bail out General Motors -- gave Michigan a vehicle to re-direct its anger. Still, this was a state that the Obama campaign was more concerned about than Pennsylvania until virtually the moment that McCain pulled out.
What Obama Has Going For Him
With all of the above said, there are also a multitude of factors that make Michigan fertile territory for Barack Obama. The state has a fairly large African-American population, and two huge university towns in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Michigan has consistently had the nation's highest or second-highest unemployment rate. It has a highly unionized electorate in a state where people still take pride in buying American. And it is a state that Democrats are used to winning.
Still, what probably did McCain in is the fact that 98 percent (!) of the state's eligible population is registered, a reflection of both the state's longtime status as a battleground and the yeoman efforts of Obama volunteers. I am told that in East Lansing, for instance, the Obama campaign registered more than 10,000 Michigan State University students, roughly the size of that school's freshman class. In the face of those kinds of numbers, the McCain campaign wasn't about to win a ground skirmish, and not long after the bailout they bailed.
What To Watch For
Various recent polls show leads for Barack Obama ranging from 10 to 22 points. Although this is one state where some veteran operatives were worried about a Bradley Effect, Obama is well outside the range where that could conceivably tip the balance of the state...
Michigan, indeed, may figure more prominently in the Wednesday Morning Quarterbacking than it does on Tuesday night. If Obama wins both the state and the nation in a blowout, it may be noted for the symbolic coming home of the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County. If Michigan turns out to be closer than anticipated -- particularly if it turns out to be closer than Pennsylvania (highly unlikely, but possible) -- the McCain campaign's decision to withdraw from the state will be scrutinized endlessly. Conversely, if McCain pulls out a narrow Electoral College victory, the same decision will be praised.
...I am so damn proud of my state. I'm ready for that blowout!
What McCain Has Going For Him
1. Obama's late start; 2. Governor Jenniefer Granholm's poor approval ratings; 3. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's multiple felony convictions; 4. A strong, well-organized state Republican party; 5. McCain's history in the state, e.g. his victory in 2000, and; 6. Michigan's history of racial tensions.
... Although Democrats were disappointed by the state's failure to hold a sanctioned primary, they did not particularly blame Obama for it, as the decision was ultimately the perogative of a Republican-controlled state legislature. Kwame Kilpatrick may have been holding Obama's numbers down over the summer, but he left office on September 18th, just soon enough to take him out of the headlines for the stretch run of the campaign. While Granholm remains unpopular, Washington's passage of the bailout bill -- coupled with its failure to bail out General Motors -- gave Michigan a vehicle to re-direct its anger. Still, this was a state that the Obama campaign was more concerned about than Pennsylvania until virtually the moment that McCain pulled out.
What Obama Has Going For Him
With all of the above said, there are also a multitude of factors that make Michigan fertile territory for Barack Obama. The state has a fairly large African-American population, and two huge university towns in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Michigan has consistently had the nation's highest or second-highest unemployment rate. It has a highly unionized electorate in a state where people still take pride in buying American. And it is a state that Democrats are used to winning.
Still, what probably did McCain in is the fact that 98 percent (!) of the state's eligible population is registered, a reflection of both the state's longtime status as a battleground and the yeoman efforts of Obama volunteers. I am told that in East Lansing, for instance, the Obama campaign registered more than 10,000 Michigan State University students, roughly the size of that school's freshman class. In the face of those kinds of numbers, the McCain campaign wasn't about to win a ground skirmish, and not long after the bailout they bailed.
What To Watch For
Various recent polls show leads for Barack Obama ranging from 10 to 22 points. Although this is one state where some veteran operatives were worried about a Bradley Effect, Obama is well outside the range where that could conceivably tip the balance of the state...
Michigan, indeed, may figure more prominently in the Wednesday Morning Quarterbacking than it does on Tuesday night. If Obama wins both the state and the nation in a blowout, it may be noted for the symbolic coming home of the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County. If Michigan turns out to be closer than anticipated -- particularly if it turns out to be closer than Pennsylvania (highly unlikely, but possible) -- the McCain campaign's decision to withdraw from the state will be scrutinized endlessly. Conversely, if McCain pulls out a narrow Electoral College victory, the same decision will be praised.
...I am so damn proud of my state. I'm ready for that blowout!